129834010401671250_1One two three four five ・ Editor's note ・ The International Monetary Fund (IMF) published in April 2012 latest World Economic Outlook report predicted, since the second half of last year and the weakness of economic activity in the first half of the year, global growth is expected to be from 3.5% per cent in 2011 to 2012 years. In fact, 2011 year print shortly after the September issues of the World Economic Outlook, eurozone experienced a severe crisis again. January 2012 the global economic prospects continue to lower expectations. "Still most concerned about at the moment is that if the euro crisis further aggravated, going to trigger a wave of far greater scope of risk aversion. "The latest World Economic Outlook, warned that" too tight macro-Economic policies can make another major economy to a persistent deflation, weak or chronically weak economic activity. Other potential risks include: as Japan and the United States of large budget deficits and debt, global bond and currency market turmoil, as well as some of the sharp slowdown in economic activity in the emerging economies. "May 18, Standing Committee member of CPC Committee,Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council investigation chaired the economic operation in Wuhan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Hebei, Liaoning, Guangdong, six in Shaanxi Province seminar pointed out that the economic situation: "the current domestic economic environment overall smooth, adhere to the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy and a stable monetary policy, trustworthy growth in a more important position. "On the current economic situation of the sentencedBroken and discussion of medium-and long-term economic woven together. "Excessive investment and insufficient domestic demand," "expanding domestic demand, promoting consumer" thesis that dominates public opinion and decision. At this point, we need to hear different voices. The Oriental Morning Post ・ Shanghai economic review published this article, attempting to deeper analysis the real structure of consumption, savings and investment, provide reference for readers.Thunder Lee (Twitter), change the mode of economic development is to go up and down one of the most talked topics, today's consensus on the structure of the economy is too dependent on investment and domestic demand is insufficient. Problem is it? From the published official statistical data is indeed true, in the troika drove GDP growth, investments always takes the high savings rate is also supporting this investment modelContinued. But if the system to do a correlation between these key indicators, will find the logical relationship between each other disorders, explains a causal relationship, but leads to logical contradictions. Therefore, I believe that misjudged China's economic structure, due to the deviation of official statistics, reduction of consumption, investment and savings rates by next phase of the true face of our holdInvestment is of great significance. An overestimate, underestimate of consumption and disposable income, and investment was underestimated logical relationship between Bureau of statistics data released from China, for much of the past decade, contribution to GDP is more than the capital formation final consumption, that China's economic growth has been sustained by investment. But I fixed-asset investment growth and GDPConsistency analysis between growth and discovered, since 2004, investment growth occurred between GDP growth and a clear departure from phenomenon (figure a), for example, fixed asset investment growth slowed down in the course of 2005-2007, GDP growth there was rising. Since it was widely felt that the Chinese economy is the stimulation of investment, fixed assets investment increasedSpeed-and deviation of the GDP is enough to draw attention to the scale of investment has doubts about the reliability of the data. (A) the scale of investment in fixed assets are overvalued if incremental capital output ratio [ICOR, reflects the investment efficiency indicators. Incremental capital output ratio = proportion of the investment as a share of GDP/GDP growth rates, its value, the better the efficiency of small shows that investment. By 2001-2003 was, on average, 40.5% per cent of China's GDP for investments, achieve the growth rate of 8%, which can count incremental capital output ratio of 5.1 (40.5/8.0). That is, to increase the rate of 1%, you must implement the equivalent of GDP5.1% of new investment. US GDP proportion of investment in fixed assetsDivided by GDP growth be ICOR], 1994 of approximately 1.955, that by the year 2009 has reached 6.09, even in 2011 at 7.05 per cent, that is, increase the GDP of 1 Yuan, as long as $ 1.955 investment, now you need to invest $ 7.05. This, of course, can be interpreted as a marginal investment resultsReduced rate, but can also be interpreted as an investment, "water" and what? While the rise in the price of the land acquisition costs because of the deficiency of factors also contributed to growth in fixed asset investment increased, but even after deducting price factors to the actual growth of visits will also found a suspected false scale of investment in fixed assets. Kind of inputs from the investment process, the vastFixed-asset investment projects, using steel and cement, steel and cement accounts for a percentage in the scale of investment in fixed assets, if the rate constant, and scale of investment in fixed assets increased by 10%, 10% steel and cement dosage should be increased. However, from the viewpoint of statistical data, 2004-2011 screw-thread steel consumption averaged 15 per cent.96%, but actual investment in fixed assets in the same period the average growth rate of 22.78% (after deducting price factors), differ by more than 6 percentage points on average per year, indicate that screw-thread steel consumption and have not been synchronized with the growth of fixed asset investment and growth, its increasingly small percentage of investment in fixed assets. 2010 screw-thread steel consumption growth of 13.12% compared, but20.89% real growth of investment in fixed assets, more than 7% screw-thread steel consumption growth. But more telling is the cement, cement shelf life shorter, should not be stored or export. According to Chinese statistics, 2001, total investment in fixed assets per million contained in cement production was 17,000 tons, and that by the year 2011,Cement output per billion only 6,700 tonnes, even taking into account the past 10 year price increase factor of cement (as ordinary Portland cement price dollars), about half to less than 10 years ago. Actual steel and cement production growth rates far lower than growth in fixed asset investment, which just goes to show, fixed assets investment statistics overestimated. OccursOvervalued, but has three main paths: project outsourcing, statistical reporting false and shoddy work. Subcontract the project is currently very common phenomenon, once per turn, you can extract a certain percentage of management fees, if subcontracting 5 times, perhaps the actual project costs less than planned out most. In addition, some items in the false prices, engage in related transactions of financial fraudThe possibility of also some declared project expenditure for the approved costs, Contracting Parties are in the process of tendering of public relations spending on rebates and other, often being charged to project funds and statistics of the fixed assets in the investment. In terms of cutting corners, stretched thin steel to cut costs, it is often heard. In July 2011, published by the Audit Commission's Audit Commission's performance dailyCome (2010) said: "by the end of June 2010, national audit institutions on Beijing-Shanghai high speed rail has invested a total 54,000 of the $ 1.9 trillion of investment project implementation of audit or audit investigation. Through the audit, examine the construction price and recoup their losses, saves $ 28.3 billion of project investment, 3.5% per cent of total investments ". From here,We believe is overvalued by at least 3.5% of fixed assets investment, of course, being audited out part is just the tip of the iceberg. In addition, investment in fixed assets was overvalued, so overvalued parts are sure to flow. I added fixed-asset investment growth and Macau Gambling revenue growth as well as luxury goods consumption growth in the Mainland for comparison (figure II), found the two-knotTheory: a luxury consumption growth, gaming revenue growth and the mainland there is a very strong positive correlation between, it's easy to understand. Second, luxury consumption growth in the Mainland or about lagging growth in fixed asset investment in gambling revenue growth for two years, later also renders synchronization speed signs, confirmed the author "part to overestimate investment need light grey" judgment, interpretation of this relationshipIs part of the overvaluation of the investment part becomes a resident of gray income, part of which went to casinos and luxury markets. (B) total disposable income is overvalued by underestimating investment, statistically have to reevaluate not only China's economic growth pattern, but also the income needed to be reassessed. Because the national statistical office "per capita disposable income"Data is sample data, error. Per capita disposable income multiplied by the total disposable income of the population estimation error must also exist. I think for a long time resident of disposable income is being underestimated. In the long run, income should be equal to the expenditure, assuming that the added expenses of residents within one year is roughly equal to the additional income, you can estimate the year residents of the actualDisposable income, less disposable income statistics sample survey data, part is underestimated. This expenditure within the meaning of, its meaning is the economics of consumption and savings, general expenditure, including new consumption during the year, new savings, residents in stocks, bonds and funds and banking products, insurance costs net of expenses, and housing investment andMortgage repayment of net investment, and investment in fixed assets. According to this method, 2008 was underestimated the total disposable income of about $ 4.7 trillion. Today, I found a more convenient method of estimating. 2006-2008 years in the 2010 China Statistical Yearbook "flow of funds table (real deal)" displayIn 2006, 2007 and 2008 household sector disposable income $ 12.9 trillion, $ 15.66 trillion and $ respectively. This is the National Bureau of statistics to the United Nations (micro-blogging) 1993 system of national accounts (SNA) identified by the pattern of data of the accounting approach, the basic principle is similar to the accounting "Take credit "balance computation method. Here the so-called "household sector", also including residents outside of individual businessmen, and the National Bureau of Statistics survey of "resident" scope is consistent. In 2006, 2007, 2008, per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents in the national statistical office survey data, multiplied by urban and rural residence, respectively persons, You can calculate the 2006, 2007, 2008 China total disposable income is $ 9.48 trillion, and $ 13.2 trillion yuan respectively. Compared with the data of these funds flow statement, difference of 3.42 trillion yuan, respectively $ 4.34 trillion and $. In other words, the National Bureau of correction2008 annual disposable income after total to $ 5.04 trillion higher than previously published sample survey results and higher than the estimates before the author. Although national statistical offices be in 2011 will be published until 2013, "flow of funds table (the real deal)", but according to per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents has released the 2011 (sample survey results), Can be extrapolated 2011 China total disposable income is about $ 19.65 trillion. Due to the disposable income of 2008-2011 (survey results) gained as 51%, out 2011 real disposable income could reach $ 27.54 trillion, $ 7.89 trillion is undervalued (figure III),When the disposable income share of the GDP from 41.8% to 58.6%, this proportion may be able to resolve the long-term was criticized "GDP proportion of household income is too low" puzzle. (Iii) consumption was underestimated the disposable income is underestimated, can logically deduce the spending power of the whole society are underestimated. In the Statistical Yearbook of consumer-relatedIncludes: total retail sales of social consumer goods and GDP spending by lower consumer spending. Total retail sales of social consumer goods products including retail, accommodation, catering and other types of retail (as part of the manufacturing and retail, petroleum, chemicals, etc), retail and residential dining and GDP spending by residents ' consumption expenditure in kind under similar alternatives, Community consumptionTotal retail sales of goods of other classes are not within the GDP accounting for consumption. Retail sales data are obtained through direct network report forms, higher accuracy, and small power companies false and understated. GDP expenditure under the law of consumer spending into real consumer spending and consumer spending (such as education, health care and tourism) in two parts, based primarily on the urban and agriculturalHousehold consumption expenditures survey to estimate, and reference data within the industry, such as financial services and so on. Due to real consumer and household survey data exist between large error (impact factors, including sample selection technology, for its own commodity pricing, services statistics are not sound, some families are reluctant to report on consumer spending), gConsumer expenditure data under DP expenditures by household survey data will face the same error, this needs some correction. GDP spending by lower consumer spending more than the total retail sales of social consumer goods reflect the General life of the people in China consumption levels, but there are many undervalued components. We use the method of breaking up, try to restore the true consumerExpenditure. First, the total retail sales of social consumer goods (goods part of retail, accommodation and catering) under the law of growth of expenditures to amending the real growth in consumer spending, get real real consumer spending under the expenditure method, to calculate the real consumer spending was undervalued. Secondly, according to the service consumer of subdivision, found the proportion of services consumption may be underestimated, which largely determines that theUndervalued the service within the scope of statistics on consumer spending. Finally, the combine can be amount of consumer spending in General is undervalued, and thus can be consumer percentage contribution to GDP is underestimated. 1. the physical consumption of residents being underestimated, undervalued more high-end consumer goods. Low-end consumer goods such as food and clothing in the real consumption is undervaluationLess. Mainly undervalued area in jewelry, cosmetics and luxury goods such as consumer, this part of the consumer under the expenditure items are classified as other types of expenditure, seen from the data that class account for less than the very apparent is being underestimated. Total retail sales of consumer goods (goods, accommodation and catering for the month) growth compared with the real consumption growth by expenditure approach, findingSince 2007, expenditure by lower consumption growth rates significantly lower than the growth of total retail sales of social consumer goods, we have reason to believe that the reliability of retail data, because most retail data is acquired through a form of direct network report of enterprises, higher accuracy. Therefore GDP expenditure approach of real consumption expenditure showed a significant underestimate, and underestimate the scale of the gradually widening.We use the total retail sales of social consumer goods (goods, accommodation and catering for the month) growth of expenditures under the law amended the real growth in consumer spending, real consumption expenditure in kind by the expenditure under the law, so as to calculate the undervalued real consumer spending. According to our estimates, were underestimated from the physical consumption of 2005-2010 amounts are: $ 158.6 billion, 1588Billions of Yuan and HK $ 0, $ 207.11 billion, and $, $ 656.8 billion. Undervalued real consumer spending accounted for 4%~10% of real consumption amounts under the expenditure method. 2. residents of the service consumer is undervalued more. Service undervalued possibilities exist in consumer spending, and higher than the real consumer spending. Can only service item statistics(Such as housing and medical care) there is a certain amount of undervalued, there are many difficult service consumption statistics or not statistics such as nanny pay, beauty salons, doctor red envelopes and children to school choice, etc. We estimate the statistical services of the project, not statistical service consumption only through a number of qualitative analysis to be underestimated. Service consumer under the expenditure methodIncluding: housing, health, culture, education and entertainment products and services, transport and communications, finance and insurance services. Financial and insurance services is calculated from the financial sector in the related report data, which are less likely to be underestimated. Transport and communication costs while also come from household surveys, smaller but there is a possibility of gray income, undervalued level is unlikely. We focus onFocus on culture, education and entertainment services, residential and healthcare expenditures on these three items. First undervalued items are cultural-educational and entertainment products and services, including tourism consumption, this undervalued possibilities is very large, because in recent years the tourism show explosive growth in consumer spending, and lower expenditures under the statistics by the. We compare cultural entertainment consumer spending and expenditure approachReleased by the Bureau of domestic tourism income of citizens, surprisingly domestic tourism income significantly higher than the statistical culture and entertainment consumption, you can say that this part of the cultural and entertainment consumption is being seriously underestimated. According to our estimates, 2004-2010 culture and entertainment products and services were underestimated costs are: $ 312.52 billion, and $HK $, $ 411.92 billion, and $, 582.12 billion, $ 670.81 billion and $. The second residence of undervalued projects, live consumer spending in GDP project includes housing, electricity, fuel, housing design, etc. Residents and private housing, including rental housing service in two forms, rental service consumptionThe renter paid rent, service consumption because the rent to own housing market is not perfect and difficult to market pricing, consumption by China's own housing services cost calculation method, that is, the housing maintenance expenses, including depreciation, property management fees. In recent years, China's real estate market prices rising fast, housing rents also rose, in this case, their own homes energy dissipationFee calculated according to the costing method than the market rent calculations somewhat undervalued. According to the National Bureau of Peng Zhilong (2008) estimated that 7.4% of China's own housing services consumer when the consumer, with the residential rental service consumption, housing services consumption household consumption expenditures in the year 7.9%. Over the United States, and Japan and Korea housingService consumption and consumer spending than in the year respectively, 15%, 16.94%, and the three countries within the last 6 years consumer proportion of consumption of basic housing services maintained at around 15%. Thus, according to the national average, we think the residential consumer is undervalued by about 7% around. Third undervalued items for medical insuranceNational health expenditures, we compare the health costs of the national health sector statistics and spending on health care expenditure under the project, found in recent years and also between the two 35% about being undervalued. Spending on health care is part of the invisible, of course, (such as red envelope) are not statistics, we believe that real health-care spending is greater than the statistics given in the numerical. We put the increaseFull service after service compared to the consumption of residents consumption and expenditure under the law, be 2004-2010 underestimate the consumption expenditure of resident services:, 572.48 billion, 752.45 billion, 904.71 billion, 1,088,970,000,000, as well as $, undervalued expenditures18%~21% per cent service consumer spending. Drop statistics available on service consumption was underestimated the value of, there are many service consumers are not statistics, we can only be analysed from a qualitative perspective. Consumption beyond the statistics of services may occur in some restaurants, entertainment, tourism and leisure, health care, domestic service and other services in the industry, asSuch a low degree of industry concentration, annual business income of more than $ 2 million and very low percentage of enterprises, are incorporated into the full range of statistical samples very low percentage of enterprises, enterprises below designated size enterprises operating income is obtained through sampling. Restaurants, for example, according to the National Bureau of statistics data, 2011 dining restaurant accommodation enterprises above designated revenues accounted for food and beverage revenue31%, and the actual percentage may be lower. Less to pay taxes, even if there is also less reported operating income of enterprises above designated size motives. Statistics 2011 food and beverage revenue amounted to 2.054 trillion yuan, which is clearly underestimated, because United States 2011 dining revenues reached $ 3.8 trillion yuan, as a advocate food culture and publicEating and drinking the prevalence of 1.3 billion population country, far less than no reason why their food consumption is more than 300 million people in United States? According to statistics, most of China's high-grade star hotel food and beverage revenue more than residential income, this is the hotel to occupy some of the Western countries, reflects the Chinese restaurants of downtown. There is also undervalued luxury consumption. Automobile imports for the year 2011 130,000 units, an increase of 28%, the amount of import customs $ 43.2 billion, an increase of 40%, imports growth was higher than the growth in imports. Domestic passenger car sales increased only around 5% in the same year. According to the Macau statistics and Census Bureau data, 2002-2011 in nine years, Macau's gaming revenue rose to 269.1 billion from $ 23.5 billion Macau patacas,Nine years have increased 10 times, and 2010 year gaming revenue is Las Vegas 4 times. Consumption of the main people from the Mainland in Macau, this data shows the country for consumer size amazing, reflected on the high income group revenues rose over the years astonishing. 3. residents ' contribution to GDP is underestimated the extent of total consumption expenditure increases year by year.Total undervalued by the addition of physical consumption of residents and service consumption, is undervalued by the total consumption expenditure. US GDP revised up, GDP=, as amended by the consumption expenditure of the GDP to be underestimated (assuming that investment in fixed assets is not overvalued), amended by calculating household consumption expenditure share of GDP after amendment, we corrected the residentsConsumption expenditure share of GDP, and comparisons with statistical Office released the consumption share of GDP, that consumer spending accounts for about proportion of GDP is underestimated around 2% (figure IV). From the revised GDP and consumption and investment situation, 2004-2011 consumption ratio is significantly higher than the investment ratio. We assume that fixed asset investment was overvaluedThe 10%, mainly based on the Audit Commission's performance 3.5% and fixed asset investment was overestimated in the report have not been audited out of parts. We will correct the consumption, investment, after recalculation of the rate of the contribution of net exports to GDP, and comparisons with statistics published prior to the amendment of the corresponding data, the result convincing. Amended, we found that consumption to GDPUndervalued the contribution of investment contribution to GDP is relatively overvalued, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2011 consumer contribution to GDP is more than an investment, contribution to the 2009 and 2010 investment over consumption is mainly because the 4 trillion plan. Overall, using expenditure approach to calculate GDP growthFactor, consumption is slightly lower than the investment, our calculation of quantitative analysis, finding undervalued part of consumer spending in the statistical standards, especially the 2009 contribution of spending to GDP is underestimated around 10%. This conclusion does not take into account consumption cannot be estimated in part, if undervalued factor of integration of consumption and investment were overvalued, you canConsumption will greatly exceed the contribution of investment to economic growth. Second, insufficient domestic demand is not totally attributed to the high savings rates in China's national savings rate is one of the highest in the world, but a lot of people are often causes of high savings rate blamed on inadequate social security system under the children's education, marriage and disease prevention, such as old-age requirements. Criticized by China's high savings rates even for the developed countries,For more savings and less consumption in China, resulting in trade deficits in the developed countries. But it is not as common as simple as that. Chinese people's actual surface data does not reflect the level of savings is so high, particularly secondary and middle income residents. (A) savings can be classified into real savings and financial savings if the economic significance of the "savings" or "savings" accountMethod does not understand that concept of savings rates, it's easy to misunderstand. On the economics of "savings" is usually generalized, including cash on hand, bank deposits, and the share of funds and other financial products and financial investment such as insurance, including buying, purchase of agricultural equipment and other fixed assets investment, which can be summed up as "financial deposit", which are collectively known as the "real savings"。 In addition, commodity trading for investment purposes is actually being incorporated into consumer statistics, such as gold and silver jewellery, it actually kind of savings should be higher than real savings in the statistical sense. According to the National Bureau of statistics to provide the "flow of funds tables" projections, 2008 residents of financial savings of about $ 5 trillion, real savings of about 2.18 trillion yuan. In order toStatistics, usually with "total savings = disposable income-total consumption expenditures" to calculate, in 2008, for example, total savings =18.24-11.06=7.18 residents ($ trillions). As to the savings rate, there are typically two ways, one is a total savings total disposable income divided by, another is the total divided by GDP. (B) ChinaHigh savings rate of 10% comes from the Government, business and high income class of the so-called China's high savings rate, generally refers to the rate of national savings, government savings, corporate savings and savings and divided by the total disposable income or GDP. 1992, for example, gross national savings and the ratio of the total disposable income of 36.3%. Based on the same caliber, 2008 national savings rateReached a record high of 51.3%, rapidly rising savings rate is mainly due to the increase in Government and corporate savings, savings account for share of GDP has remained at around 20%. Even contribute at least part of the gross national savings rate, savings rate was still overvalued, as disposable income clearly underestimated phenomenon in China (as described earlier), this led to residentsSavings rates and the denominator is smaller. At the same time due to the concentration of income, in the case of most of the residents, their domestic savings rate is not high. Therefore nationals of China's high savings rate is caused due to high government and corporate savings, savings is not high, and household savings rate is because disposable income exists undervalued and overvalued. Since the nationalFacts behind the high savings rate for ordinary people's savings rate is not high, high savings rates result in judgments and inferences of insufficient domestic demand should also not set up. Residents ' income gap is too wide, lead to financial savings and real savings in urban and rural areas a large part of belonging to a small part of the total person. Structure of banking has never disclosed deposits of urban and rural residents in China, for example, deposit $ 10 million toTop, $ 1 million to $ 10 million, from $ 100,000 to $ 1 million and $ 100,000 below how the number of depositors, but we can generally according to the statistics of income data to calculate deposit accounts for different income groups. In 2008, for example, before the amendment 10% in the highest income of urban residents per capita disposable income of households published for 436$ 13.75, press 606.67 million projections of the size of the population in cities and towns, towns 10% disposable income of the highest-income group amounted to $ 2.65 trillion, also assume that the total adjusted disposable income of urban and rural residents are undervalued $ 5.24 trillion of three highest-income group is part of the 10% cities and towns, that part of the population (population 4.57%) Of the total disposable income of $ 6.84 trillion, accounted for 37.5% of the total disposable income of people in China. To note is, as amended by the national statistical office data may underestimate the total disposable income, the actual income gaps more. In other words, leading to high savings rates are important factors of a small number of people in China get results, most savings of scaleVery small. (C) the investment is higher than the marginal propensity to consume of high income groups, driving asset price inflation in China town 10% highest income gap between residents and the real income of the lowest income residents of 10% in about 24 times. The expansion of income gap between different groups, had decided that the Engel's coefficient varies greatly with each other, almost the total disposable income of 40%Minorities (lack of proportion of total population of 5%), because the marginal propensity to consume less, its share of consumption necessities of life is very low, and real investment or a higher proportion of, such as purchases, buying a higher proportion of gold, leading to spiralling prices of these investments. Therefore, determine the real price, from the perspective of monetary flows, is chasing the kind of money flow more,Gains will be greater. Money to the Fisher equation is transformed: MV=PQ=P1Q1 P2Q2 P3Q3 P4Q4 sth Where: m-money supply; v represents the velocity; p for the overall price level; Q number means the end product; P1Q1 1 the price and quantity of the product in kind. When you have large enoughCurrency equivalent into real objects 1, 2 in kind, in kind 3 delegates Shi, more less in kind, the price should be higher. Owing to the large income than higher income groups, in order for monetary income and will not devalue, power scarcity of monetary income into a certain physical assets, and relative lack of income is in this capacity, revenue to meet the daily shoppingDemand, relatively little monetary income flows to areas of is not lack of supplies. This may explain why housing, rise in gold, jade jewelry, works of art, and so much more than everyday (representatives of CPI) causes, or can also explain to some extent to the middle income group as the main cause of poor stock market performance. Summary of the past more than 10 yearsTo currency Super made and inflation does not significantly of causes: Super made of currency most became Government, and enterprise and minority residents of savings, into to General residents of pocket in does not more, and marginal consumption tendencies high of is in the low-income groups, investment rate high of is is high income groups, so currency Super made to conduction to life necessities of price rose Shang, exists must is Shi delay. This can also beExplaining why the amazing luxury spending growth over the past more than 10 years, such as maotai, up nearly 10 times over the past 10 years. (Iv) physical investment high return rate is near end of the era, despite rapid growth in the income of high-income groups has led to a certain extent structural problems highlighted, but high GDP growth of more than 30 years, structural contradictions and no obvious obstructionGrowth in domestic demand, a nominal increase of the total retail sales of social consumer goods to more than nominal GDP growth rate. Luxury consumption growth is amazing. Relevant data show that 1998-2008 per cent from 10 times the luxury consumption in China, growth started to slow after the 2009, 2011 London spot gold rose gold 10.16%,International linkage of the fluctuation of prices of precious metals such as gold
Diablo 3 gold, gold prices also fell after the July 2011 adjustment in China. And the domestic prices of the decrease of the area began to expand in after October 2011. Statistics [edit: data sources for yachang art market monitoring Center (AMMA)], the Chinese art market total transactions for the year 2011$ 93.4 billion, $ 2010 turnover by more than 63%, but with the art auction market turnover compared to the amount of days in the spring, fall 2011 showed a significant drop in trading volumes, China's art index of allegedly only 6% per cent in 2011, after October has taken a weak up trend. Correlation of the real economy and from large coloredTrend of copper, copper or 21% 2011 London, decline in domestic stock prices reached 20%, rises before falling, rising after September suppression process. From these physical investment trends of 2011 year, basically falling inflection points in the second half to emerge. Short term housing, such as copper, gold, works of art, realInvestment rises before the antibacterial trend 2011 CPI began to fall in the second half, falling growth in M1, M2, GDP growth fell back seems to be a consistent; long term, investment in kind after a long rise, this down kind of like bubble process start. But to confirm the long-term decline of real investment turning point if there was not easy, and quite some time in the future economicGrowth fell back to 9% M2 growth dropped below to a following, it is the probability of the event, which can generally infer that even real investment price turning points have not appeared, its high yields also near end of an era. Real assets in high-yield page era is beginning in 2009 revenue growth more than lower income groups in higher income groupsThen? Although I think the Statistics Bureau underestimated the total disposable income, but changes are based on the same sample of observation, you can filter the absolute index of error, it still has a reference. Figure v shows that as of 2009 income has grown faster than lower income groups in higher income groups, and the income of the lowest income groups 10% growth to exceed the maximum income 10%Group 4%. 2009 is not only fast-rising of the low-income groups in urban residents income starting point and revenue than towns, and rural residents income in Midwest starting point for rapid growth. Its background is the lower end of the national labour shortages and rising minimum wage in each province, and most fundamental reason is that China's economy has gone through so many yearsUneven development, self-adjustment of the economic structure, the repair mechanisms come into play. This is actually a sign of the rising contribution of domestic demand for economic growth. Authorities expect luxury consumption growth in China this year and the casino industry's gross income growth will decline sharply, is this related to decline in income growth and high income groups? Such as maotai has also recently begun fallingPrice, auction of works of art into the depressed market, and ordinary consumer goods growth remains stable. These cases show that China's economic structure is improved, consumption will continue to rise in China's economy, insufficient domestic demand that is not established. Third, can you achieve balanced regional development in China since the late 1990 's, the Government constantly referred to "expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption",And hope that the balanced development of regional economy, eastern part of the Central and Western regions to catch, introduced a series of preferential policies for regional development. However, in the past a dozen years, Midwest and Eastern regions the gap has not narrowed considerably. Central and Western regions from the perspective of investment efficiency (in GDP output corresponding to fixed asset investment) is far lower than in the East, such as output by the unit fixed-asset investment in the Western regionGDP has grown from under 2000 $ 2.8 $ 1.32 per cent in 2010, are output of more than $ 2 in the East, Shanghai to output ratio of 3.36 ahead. Investment in Midwest advance in more than 20 years and is given appropriate incentives, resulting in declining input-output ratio, low investment efficiency, which can lead toBalanced regional development strategies, or several points on the development of backward areas: (a) regional revitalization policy has become the "GSP" took priority development in the coastal areas at the early stage of reform and opening up, China's economic development strategy, 30 years after the review of the strategy, it was very successful, national GDP increased at an annual rate of close to 10%, which is called economic miracle. ButIn terms of balanced development among regions, but were originally envisaged through Echelon development in Central and Western development in coastal areas to boost the so-called "flying geese model" or "development model of gradient" is also a far, demonstrated by the eastern coastal areas and the Central and Western regions economic development gap widening. To do so, to reduce regional imbalances between the Government made tireless efforts. For example, in 1999 proposed and implemented the "large-scale development of the Western region" strategy, take ten preferential policy, did play a positive role in promoting the economic development of the Western region. In addition, first introduced in 2003, the revitalization of old industrial bases in Northeast China development strategy; 2006 State Department has launched the "central area's uprising" plan, promote regional development initiatives have in fact already covered in addition to EastAll areas beyond the coastal areas of the Department. Even in coastal areas, is lagging behind the Government on development of regional development policy was launched, such as the Bohai region and also give preferential policies to the development of the West side of the Straits. Local area encouraging support policies had become almost "GSP", according to incomplete statistics, since 2008, the State Council approved the 19 districtArea revitalization plan, everybody on the policy effect is also expected to decline. (B) will the industry shift from East to West was able to keep so many years of rapid development in the coastal areas of China, and is closely related to the success of China's export-led economic model, which is at the beginning of reform and opening up, China did not expect miracles. Throughout the 1980 's, China had establishedSet up Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Shantou, Xiamen and Hainan 14 coastal cities and five special economic zones, are designed to introduce foreign capital, to address the funding gap of Chinese manufacturing problems and learn advanced management skills. In this process, the flow of Chinese talents and cheap labor have developed areas along the coast. Formed the core of Guangzhou-Dongguan-ShenzhenThe Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta with Shanghai-Suzhou-Hangzhou-the core of two economic development zone. However, in recent times, due to the system of joining the WTO to enjoy bonuses gradually faded and slow global economic recovery, economic growth in eastern coastal dragged down by weak exports, coupled with the rise in prices of land, labor, and other elements, increases such as the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River DeltaUrban investments and operating costs of the two growth poles. Therefore, necessity of industrial upgrading and industrial transfer is a logical move, such as Guangdong province made a "tenglonghuanniao" conception of industrial upgrading and industrial transfer. But the industry how to upgrade and how to transfer, it is the economic logic of insurmountable obstacles. Double transfer was put forward of Guangdong Provincial GovernmentIndustrial transfer and transfer of collectively. Specifically refers to the Pearl River Delta to the West Wing, labour-intensive industries in mountainous area of metastasis and wings, the mountain area workforce, to two or three local industries on the one hand, on the other hand some of these high quality labor force, transfer to developed Pearl River Delta region. But whether this wishful thinking by the Government within the province industry transition to ShunLi advance, is questionable. One is the industry can offset the increase in transport costs, loss of economies of scale and proliferation of industrial agglomeration effect? Dongguan original industry agglomeration effects and has become a role model for the world, if the industrial transfer will be self-defeating. Second upgrade with talent development and benefits? Technology in the Delta peopleThan twice times the amount was the Pearl River Delta, and in 2011, for spending on research and development in Guangdong Province only 1.85% per cent of regional GDP. Shanghai to 2.9% over the same period, the national average is 1.9%. Three is the first province of Guangdong was able to become China's GDP, is the development of low value-added industries, and China was able to become the global GDP rankingsSecond power is developing low-end manufacturing. This is a result of the global division of labour, as well as local government intervention in the market of smart. From Guangdong, "tenglonghuanniao" has more replacement words, such as "spread caged bird", "modified breeding bird cage", two moved into the "in-place upgrade, the nearest transfer", stating that market forces are better than GovernmentPlan. From "World War II" after changing characteristics of global industrial division, there are manufacturing from Europe to Japan, from Japan to the Tigers, and then by the process of transfer to natives of the four little dragons, but whether the next inevitable shift to inland western areas of logic? According to a survey of Federation of Hong Kong industries, 90% per cent of enterprises are reluctant to leave Pearl IIICorner areas, after they think that industry over the rise in transport costs is the biggest problem, followed by shortage of skilled workers, the third is the Mainland lacks such as the Pearl River Delta as a complete industry. From the perspective of global transfer of manufacturing features, mostly along the coastline of transfer, because the shipping cost is minimum. In the four major manufacturing country in the world now, Germany has more than 1200Km of coastline, while Japan and Korea itself is the island country, China's manufacturing industry is mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal. Therefore, industrial distribution and Division of labour in the world and still has a very strong relationship between geographical location when we plan the transfer of manufacturing industries to the Mainland along the Yangtze River in the coastal areas, should also be noted that Viet Nam, Indonesia and other countries a more cost advantage? NowThe reality is that most enterprises are not willing to give up low-end industries in the coastal areas, not even willing to industries in the province, its essence is the comprehensive cost of factors of production. (C) Central and Western regions have the balanced development of industrial transfer of the undertaking includes policy makers, most of the common aspirations of the people, including the balanced development between regions, urban and ruralBalanced development. In fact, since 2000, the Government in promoting the development of the West, Northeast and central regions have made great efforts, demonstrated by the central finance transfer payment and delivery of various preferential policies. But the scale of fixed asset investment increased in these areas has not brought economic prosperity. As from 2001 to 2010, the Western region of solidScale of investment in fixed assets in the country than has been from increased to 16.37% per cent, increasing from 14.86% to 17.14% in the Middle, in the East from 54.9% per cent. Midwest and northeast of continued growth in fixed asset investment over the years have not brought GDP grew, overall was not rising drop. IfFrom 1993-2010, in the eastern part of GDP rose from 49.53% per cent, Western, North-Eastern and central region has declined. Similarly, high investment growth in the Midwest and Northeast, failed to bring income improved significantly, and in absolute amounts, and in the eastern part of the gap is still widening. Comparison of residents ' deposits with theReal-world data changes, for example, from the end of 2005 to the end of 2010, residents of the Northeast savings balances only 0.77 times times, almost in the Eastern and central regions and in the West, grew by about 1 time, but the absolute difference from the original three regions of Eastern savings balances total less than $ 1.6 trillion, has extended the $ 2.8 trillion. Therefore, from $ 199Regional revitalization policy starting from 0, regardless of the large-scale development of the Western region is also the Northeast or central China, government investment and Banking Department of credit support was solid, but the investment results are worrying, diminishing return on investment year after year. This phenomenon occurs, can be explained by economies of scale and agglomeration effects. Globally, half of the world'sGDP was created by the land area of 1.5% parts of the world, and such a small economic sector is home to the world's population of one-sixth. Similarly, the size of only one-fifth in Eastern China, it has created more than half of GDP. Therefore, characteristic of economies of scale is compact. According to the World Bank (micro-blogging) findings
SWTOR Credits, economic density increases 1 time,6% improvement in productivity, increased by 1 time times and distance from Centre City, 6% reduction in profits. Therefore, accumulated effect is most evident in major cities, such as New York's local production worth over United States all States, GDP per capita also ranked second in the world Shenzhen exports more than the whole of India. Dongguan as the world's economies of scale in the myth: head and computer case world40%, CCL and drive global 30%,IBM (micro-blogging), Compaq, Hewlett Packard (micro-blogging), and computer companies, such as Bell parts supply in Dongguan as an important base. One-fifth from Dongguan of China garments, sweaters with an annual output of more than 200 million, Dongguan China furniture's largest export base. So, from the perspective of history, world economic growth isTo promote local, normality of uneven development is economic development. These data and the case has clearly told us that development in Central and Western regions can easily lead to diseconomies. In fact, China's Central and Western regions at least half of the city there are small scale problems, and even some Eastern cities were no exception, small scale leading to decline in output. While the currentTraffic situation in China has had a great deal of difference, but economics is not equivalent to a distance of geographical distance, or the distance measured by delivery only, it should be a measure of goods, services, labour, capital, information and ideas through the ease of space, Central and Western regions only through the construction of the expressway is not enough to attract industrial capital. BalanceResult of another development strategy embodied in the Central and Western local government debt ratio and local banks ' non-performing assets rate is increased, reducing their capacity for undertaking industrial transfer in the future. According to official data, in the Eastern Midwest local debt balance to exceed, but total revenue was much lower than the eastern region, which means that the debt-servicing capacity of the Midwest region,And depends on a large number of transfer payments to the budget balance, 2010 Eastern region general budget amounted to 100 per person, for example, per capita income equivalent to the general budget of the Central and Western regions and 39% in the East, to do this, Central Finance transfer payment, such as after the 2010 central finance transfer payment of about $ 4.1 trillion, Central, and Western parts of theBudget income equivalent to the East and 72%. But as revenue contribution first in province of Guangdong, per capita spending in the provinces and in the row after 20, only to 3.39 million foreign workers ' children education will increase in spending was $ 17 billion. And the Central and Western regions although the scale of investment and transfer payments has significantly increased, but most of the MidwestDue to lack of high investment in economies of scale, resulting in low investment-benefit or loss, such as the Midwest airport 70% is a loss, highway loss rate estimates of more than 50%, 80% of the funds by the Bank. High investment, high volume, high high loss rates, transfer the game can continue in the year, will eventually lead the East?(Iv) can achieve scale economic evaluation of urban competitiveness and the input-output ratio is actually the process of China's urbanization and economic formation process of agglomeration economies of scale and, now in a stage of rapid development of the urbanization process in China, but which cities will eventually be around our economic growth pole of development, we can judge it from the perspective of urban competitiveness.Chinese Academy of social sciences, the Chinese urban competitiveness report, published each year, from 2009, year of comprehensive competence (growth, scale, efficiency, quality, efficiency, structure), top in the city other than Hong Kong, Taipei and Central Changsha, rest is the eastern coastal cities, such as Shenzhen, Guangzhou Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Hangzhou, Shanghai, and BeijingTianjin and Beijing, Tianjin. Most notably was the Pearl River Delta region, due to its competitiveness of some sort in the leading city very much, such as Dongguan, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Zhuhai entry opening to the competition's top ten, and Dongguan and Foshan economic efficiency competitive entering the top ten major cities in the country. As the Shandong Bohai economic circle, there are manyCity to enter the top ten indicators of competitiveness, such as Qingdao, Yantai and Weihai. By contrast, city in Western, Central and northeastern China to list ratio is very low, except in Ordos, Inner Mongolia, baotou, belongs to the resource-type cities, or Chongqing, Chengdu, Hefei and other centers outside the city into the top item index, after most of the rest of the city ranked. Although these years closedThe regional concept for the rise of more and more, such as the Beibu Bay economic zone, Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration, Cheng-Yu economic zone, but if the lack of competitiveness in these areas of the city, where capital flows and industrial transfer? We found that the economic input-output ratio in China is falling, but the northeast of fast, than the minimum of input and output are, since 2000 WestInput-output ratio in the Western great development is actually down further, from 1 per cent in 2010 under the unit's investment GDP2.99 1.57, for 2010 in the Northeast. Under the long-term strategy of urbanization in China, small and medium-sized cities growing too fast, big city population agglomeration, is enough. Over million of China's populationMarket share is too small, its population is only 47% of the total population of all cities, compared to a global average of 73%. Urbanization rate in China is not only far below the four little dragons, also lower than India, Indonesia and other less developed countries. 2010 provincial GDP relative to the input-output ratio of fixed assets investment of more than 2 are Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, respectively � noneExceptions are the eastern coastal belt, Shanghai to 3.36 productive far ahead of them. In addition, the input-output ratio as well as an important indicator of whether to achieve the economies of scale, such as simple sort of GDP growth from all provinces, found, Ningxia, Qinghai, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other places is a leading, but mainly rely on the exploitation of mineral resources in Inner MongoliaDynamic economic growth, it is difficult to drive economic development around. And, judging from the input-output ratio, almost all these provinces came in last, such as Inner Mongolia 2010 investment in fixed assets to GDP ratio is only 1:1.31, Ningxia is even lower, only 1:1.17. Tianjin Bohai rim economic zone's GDP growth in the first three years is first in the forefront of the eastern region, but voteRatio is not high in output, very interesting, because good geographical location and growing urban competitiveness of Tianjin to Beijing, a number of urban growth poles in the Bohai Sea Rim, this growth may be following the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta's new growth, deficiency is relatively weak competitiveness of Liaoning and Hebei. More promising is the Pearl River DeltaAnd diffusion effect of the two growth poles of the Yangtze River Delta, such as the rise of the cities of Heyuan, Huizhou and Qingyuan, China's economic growth in the Pearl River Delta's leading position stronger, Hefei and Wuhu in Anhui Province who was able to attract more capital and industry, is made of radiation in the Yangtze River Delta economy further improved. As the rise of Hong Kong, Taipei, Kaohsiung, 1970Cities still maintain their prosperity, competitiveness, cities in Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta economy of scale and agglomeration effects are so much more advantages, but China's urbanization rate is far below global level, future, like Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Tianjin, the size of the city should be greater, population, capital, technology, information is more concentrated. China to developMiddle income countries in the world, mainly rely on economies of scale formation in the eastern part and a large number of immigrants (until the end of 2011, 253 million Chinese peasants, or the nearest wage earners). Although in recent years the Midwest accelerated economic growth, but will continue? Both return on investment, economies of scale requirements and in the financial position of local government, are difficult toSupport long-term high-growth of China, next to the regional sustainable development is in the Eastern, industrial transfer and upgrading should be in some areas with economies of scale advantages within (primarily in the East). At the same time, China's economic development in the area of non-equilibrium will be maintained, world economic development have proven, always focus on the rise of minimalWithin the geographical area, so that factors of production in order to obtain the best configuration. To labour element, for example, according to the 2011 National Bureau of statistics data, source out to migrant workers in China form, out of proportion of migrant workers in Central and Western areas close to 70%; press ENTER, absorbed in the East out of peasant workers out of farmer workers new definitions today, 65.4% in the central region accounted for 17.6%, 16.7% in the West. Visible human capital flows flows mainly from the Midwest to the East. The past 10 years, Guangdong has become the largest province in population, it is the result of immigration flows. If some of the backward Central and Western regions the population substantially reduced per capita resources has significantly increased in these areas, level of income can be increased.Developed economies of agglomeration process worthy of our reference, as Germany GDP per capita and per square kilometre in Hamburg twice times the GDP respectively out of backward regions in the Northeast and 100 times, but welfare is there is no difference between two areas, comparable to levels of per capita income. In recent years, China's Central and Western regions and the eastern region urban residents ' income grew by almost no differencesMeans that the relative income gap is not narrowing, and absolute income gap is widening. From the point of view of the asset factor mobility, China's leading flow of human resources and industrial capital flows leading to the contrary, population to the East to the West, capital, does this mean that mismatches of factors of production? Development strategies should see through the phenomenon of substance, adhere to market principles, to ride the.Expect all backward areas in China's economic rise is not realistic, but the income gap between different regions would be diminished, mainly through the free flow of people, match for improvement of human resources and other factors of production and realization of Government transfer payments to. In addition, for which area will rise, or sustainable development, guide and inspiration of Government should not be ignored, But also an objective assessment needs to be done, the real decisions of regional economic development and growth
SWTOR Credits, and eventually the crowd, was also selected by the market. Such as Wenzhou and did not enjoy too much government support policies, and it has become the financial centre of the country, decided the civil market interest rates, Wenzhou flights on aircraft a day and access even more than some of the capital city, this shows that the integrity of the marketEnvironment, the instinct of the profit-making private capital, strategic planning more powerful than the Government. (Author of haitong securities Vice President and Chief Economist. This article on May 8, 2012 in the form of haitong Securities Institute research reports published, thanks to high and Dr Zhou Xia two modifications and additions. )
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